Today, I return to one of my bugbears - Gross emissions.
(For our new subscribers, this means total emissions put into the atmosphere before any removals. Read more about them here).
There's growing awareness about this issue.
Last month, Andrew Forrest said the world needs to walk away from the ‘proven fantasy’ of Net Zero emissions by 2050 and embrace ‘Real Zero’ by 2040.
We already know Australia's Gross emissions have flatlined.
Reading time: 3 minutes
Data Note
Gross / Real emissions are not reported by governments. They should be, because estimates about removals are dubious.
To fill the gap, we have calculated Gross emissions by excluding the only sector that removes emissions from the atmosphere – Land Use.
It’s not perfect but it's the best we've got for now.
Higher Real Emissions
Queensland
Queensland crows it 'smashed' its emissions reduction target eight years ahead of schedule.
The target was -30% below 2005 levels. It claims to have hit -35.3% below 2005 levels.
But when we exclude the Land Use sector, Queensland's emissions are 11.4% higher than they were in 2005.
We'll dig into Queensland's numbers another time, but for now, we can say the state's claim to reducing emissions relies nearly entirely on changes in Land Use.
QLD Net emissions
QLD Real emissions
Northern Territory
In the Northern Territory, both Net and Gross emissions have increased since 2005.
The NT's Net emissions are +49.1% higher than 2005, while its Gross emissions are +93.7% higher.
It's worth noting the Territory has far lower emissions than Queensland overall (see the smaller y-axis values). It has no 2030 emissions reduction target.
NT Net emissions
NT Real emissions
Western Australia
Western Australia is similar to the NT.
Both Net and Gross emissions in WA have increased since 2005.
The state's Net emissions are 8.3% higher than 2005, while its Gross emissions are 46.7% higher.
There is a key difference. WA's baseline is much bigger than NT's (see values on the y-axis). That means more real carbon in the atmosphere.
WA also has no 2030 emissions reduction target.
WA Net emissions
WA Real emissions
Lower Real Emissions
South Australia
Let's look at the states that are making real carbon cuts.
South Australia has driven both Net and Gross emissions down by the biggest margins.
The state's Net emissions are -56.71% lower than 2005, and its Gross emissions are -24.7% lower.
That means South Australia has reduced its Real emissions by -24.7%.
SA Net emissions
SA Real emissions
Victoria
Like SA, Victoria has driven both Net and Gross emissions down since 2005.
Victoria's Net emissions are -31.3% lower than 2005, and its Gross emissions are -23% lower.
The small gap between Net and Gross emissions in Victoria (8.3 percentage points), shows the state has relied the least on the Land Use sector to deliver its reductions.
VIC Net emissions
VIC Real emissions
NSW
NSW has also driven both Net and Gross emissions down since 2005.
Net emissions in NSW are -27.3% lower than 2005. Its Gross emissions are -17.9% lower.
The difference between Net and Gross emissions is just 9.4 percentage points, showing real cuts have been made.
NSW Net emissions
NSW Real emissions
Small Contributors
Tasmania
Tasmania is Australia’s Net Zero leader, having already hit the target.
That said, Tassie's Gross emissions are low but essentially unchanged.
Tassie's Net emissions are -127.7% lower than 2005, and its Gross emissions have changed precisely 0%.
TAS Net emissions
TAS Real emissions
ACT
The ACT makes a tiny contribution to Australia's greenhouse gases.
Its Net emissions are -7.1% lower than 2005, while its Gross emissions have increased by 16.7%.
But the miniscule base of 1.2 Mt CO2-e means any modest change is magnified and the impact is negligible.
ACT Net emissions
ACT Gross emissions
Summary
Queensland boasts about hitting its emissions reduction target but the state's Real emissions are higher than in 2005. Emissions in NT and WA have increased in both Net and Gross terms. South Australia, Victoria and NSW have all achieved Real emissions cuts, without relying solely on changes in Land Use.
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