Australia's net emissions are rising.
Last Friday afternoon, the federal government published its quarterly greenhouse gas update. It showed yearly net emissions have increased. Let’s dig into the data. (Hate jargon? There’s a glossary at the end.)
The big picture
Australia’s yearly emissions to March were 0.1% higher than the previous year (465.9 Mt CO2-e*).
Early estimates for the year to June show an increase of 0.9% (466.9 Mt CO2-e).
Key Points:
The big winner: Electricity
Electricity emissions fell 4% in the year to March 2023 (153 Mt CO2-e).
The win comes from renewable energy cutting into fossil fuel power sources. Renewables contributed 39% of total electricity generation.
Context: Electricity is the biggest slice of the emissions pie (32.8%).
The big losers: Transport and Agriculture
Transport emissions rose by 6.6%* (97.6 Mt CO2-e).
This was expected as travel recovers from Covid-19 restrictions.
Domestic jet fuel emissions jumped 63%, the biggest quarter since their peak in December 2017.
Emissions from road petrol and diesel also increased (5% and 1.4%). DCCEEW flagged the growing popularity of diesel-powered passenger vehicles and increasing demand for road freight. Australia’s diesel vehicle stocks have increased 84% since 2014.
Agriculture emissions rose by 3.2% (81.5 Mt CO2-e).
DCCEEW says this is because of the post-drought rebound in livestock numbers and crop production, which hit record levels
Context: Transport and agriculture are our third and fourth biggest emitting sectors (20.9% and 17.5%).
The small winners: Fugitive Emissions, Stationary Energy and Industrial Processes (Don’t forget there's a glossary at the end).
Fugitive emissions fell by 0.8%* (48.3 Mt CO2-e).
The win is mainly thanks to less coal production. Oil and gas emissions grew slightly, driven by more gas production.
Stationary energy emissions (excluding electricity) fell by 0.9% (103.4 Mt CO2 e).
The year-on-year fall is due to less manufacturing. However, stationary energy emissions are generally growing because of rocketing LNG exports.
Industrial processes and product use emissions fell by 0.9% (32.4 Mt CO2 e).
This is thanks to less production of steel and aluminium, as well as lower emissions from refrigerators and air conditioners.
Context: Stationary energy is the second biggest slice of the emissions pie (22.2%). Fugitive emissions and Industrial processes make 10.4% and 6.9% of Australia’s emissions.
The small loser: Waste
Waste emissions went up 0.7% (13.6 Mt CO2-e).
Most waste emissions are methane. DCCEEW says annual trends are heavily influenced by rates of methane recovery at landfills.
Context: Waste makes 2.9% of Australia’s emissions.
The outlier: Land Use
Emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) have not changed for two years, sitting at -63.8 Mt CO2-e since June 2021.
Australia has relied heavily on land use to achieve emission reductions (they have decreased 179% since 2005).
The sector’s plateau coincides with Australia’s stalling emission reductions overall.
Below: the black line shows emissions from all sectors excluding Land Use.
What we're reading
Obviously, the Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: March 2023. See it here.
An important story in The Guardian, eloquently told, about the bush revolt against the powerlines Australia needs to upgrade its electricity grid. “If you ask Paul and Andrea Sturgess how much their view is worth, the answer is: priceless. To the electricity transmission network operator Transgrid, it’s less than $800,000.”
* Data notes:
* Glossary: