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Good Monday afternoon, and welcome to your climate data briefing. 🍂
This newsletter brings you one big analysis — the final in our transport series (for now).
In the last issue, we saw the birth of SUV nation.🫃🏻 Today, we're asking what that did to emissions.
More specifically: did SUV Nation slow emissions cuts in Australia's new vehicles?
When we started this research, I had a hunch that one slice of the market was doing most of the work dragging up the national average ... namely utes. But now, my thinking has changed.
Let me show you what we found. Let's drive! 🚘
Preliminaries
Quick Refresh
In the last issue, we looked at the sales-weighted emissions intensity of Australia's light vehicles, measured in grams of carbon dioxide per kilometre (g/km). Catch up or refresh your memory here.
This figure has fallen over time. But that has been uneven.
🟢 Between 2005-2015: emissions intensity fell steadily
🟠 Between 2016-2020: progress stalled
🟢 From 2021 onwards: emissions intensity started falling again, with bigger drops from 2023
We're interested in the millions of real-world choices behind those changes.
Last time, we covered the vehicles Australians buy. Today, it's the emissions those vehicles release.
What you need to know
As usual, finding real-world data without paying exorbitant prices takes a little ingenuity and a lot of grunt work. 🤓
- For each year, we collected the top 20 best-selling makes and models (except 2007, where we could only find the top 10)
Together, these vehicles account for roughly half of all new vehicle sales.
- For each model, we calculated the average emissions intensity for the newest variants
We did this because we don't know which variants buyers actually chose.
⚠️ Important caveat: If a model's newest variants include electric or hybrid options, those lower-emissions versions pull down the model's average emissions intensity. But this shows what buyers could choose, not what they did choose. If most buyers chose the petrol or diesel variants, the real-world emissions intensity would be higher than the average shown here. We flag the clearest cases as they come up.
🧐 How to read the charts below
Each dot represents a make and model in the top 20 best-selling vehicles. (E.g. Toyota RAV4).
- Horizontal x-axis: the year it was a best-seller
- Vertical y-axis: average emissions intensity across its newest variants that year
The higher the dot, the higher the average emissions intensity. The brighter the dot, the higher the sales.
To see the make and model behind each dot, hover over it in the live version of this newsletter, available soon after sending.
👉 Note: The dots show the simple average for each model. The line shows the sales-weighted average for the entire fleet. There's an explanation of these at the end.
Analysis
🚗💨 Part 1: Sedans and Hatchbacks
We know from the last issue that sales of traditional car models (sedans, station wagons and hatchbacks) have collapsed. ⚰️
The chart below shows large sedans. Each dot represents the emissions intensity of a top-selling model, by year. Most of them were Aussie-made Holden Commodores and Ford Falcons. 🇦🇺
See how the dots sit well above the sales-weighted average line. These cars were big sellers and big emitters.
- After 2017, the dots disappear as the segment fell out of the top 20.
Like large sedans, sales of medium sedans and hatchbacks have also plummeted. 💀 They disappeared from the top 20 altogether for five years. But they've made a slight comeback.
- In 2023 and 2024, they hit the top 20 again, this time with low-emitting options: Toyota Camry (91 g/km) and Tesla Model 3 (0 g/km).
Small sedans and hatchbacks have stayed in the top 20 for two decades. That means we can see a clear trend without interruptions. 📉
They show gradual, and continuous emissions cuts. In the chart below, notice the waterfall cascading downwards, as the average emissions intensity of new variants falls.
But there's a catch. Sales of these models fell too. 🔻 As the dots fade in colour and become more sparse, small cars are losing ground.
- By 2025, the Toyota Corolla was the only small car left in the top 20.
The most popular light cars show the same pattern in sales, but a different pattern in emissions. Their emissions intensity has barely changed although they started from a lower base.
- In 2023, the newest MG3 variants had nearly the same emissions intensity as the Holden Barina in 2006.
Bring it all together, and we can see how sedans and hatchbacks helped shape the early curve.
- As Australians abandoned large, high-emitting sedans and wagons, the average emissions intensity fell.
- Small and medium cars got cleaner, but this counted for less as sales sank. 🤏
🚙💨 Part 2: SUVs
We know from the last issue that SUV sales have exploded.
The chart below shows large and upper-large SUVs. Their emissions intensity sits consistently above the sales-weighted average, making them some of the highest-emitting models in the bestseller list.
That said, large SUVs have delivered incremental improvements in emissions intensity. (There are not enough upper large SUVs in the top 20 to see a trend).
Medium SUVs show a more complicated trend. The dots representing these models haven't just grown; they've multiplied as more medium SUVs hit the bestseller list.
That has brought a wider range of vehicles into the mix. Notice how the dots fan out, showing models that span a broad range of emissions intensities, from low to high.
- The Tesla Model Y (0 g/km) entered the top 20 in 2023 — just when the overall average dropped.
Finally, small SUVs show the reverse pattern to sedans, appearing on the bestseller list for the first time in 2015.
Since then, their popularity has grown. But their emissions intensity has barely moved.
In the chart below, see how the dots form a straight-ish horizontal line, showing little improvement in the emissions intensity of the newest variants of popular models.
* The Hyundai Kona was released in an electric variant in 2020. Buyers did not necessarily choose that option.
Bring all SUVs together, and their influence on the curve is clear.
The sales-weighted average emissions intensity line cuts through the middle of the most popular models. That shows how heavily SUVs now shape the overall result.
While the segment includes low- and zero-emissions models, the broader shift to SUVs has moved more buyers into a category where emissions are generally higher than comparable sedans.
🛻💨 Part 3: Utes
The final piece of the puzzle is utes. Their emissions profile looks similar to large SUVs.
- Utes have remained in the top 20 consistently, which lets us see a trend.
- They are generally high-emitting, but have delivered gradual improvements over time.
The difference is sales. Utes are far more popular than large SUVs. They are routinely the biggest selling models in Australia. That makes them central to the curve.
* The newest versions of the BYD Shark and Ford Ranger 4WD included PHEV variants, with average emissions intensity of 46 g/km and 109 g/km respectively. Buyers did not necessarily choose those variants.
In effect, utes are Australia's new Commodores and Falcons.
- They have replaced the big sedans as Australia's mass-market favourites.
- And they have carried forward a similar emissions profile: they consistently sit well above the sales-weighted average, while delivering incremental improvements.
🎯 Takeaway
As large sedans disappeared from Australia's new car market, and smaller cars became cleaner, Australians had a chance to cut average emissions intensity faster. Instead, most buyers moved up in size.
That shift blunted the gains from improving technology and contributed to the plateau. The main force keeping the national average high was not a handful of high-emitting models; it was millions of ordinary car-buying decisions across the market.
Since 2023, sharp drops are largely thanks to a smaller group of buyers choosing dramatically lower-emitting options — especially EVs.
The many kept the average high. The few are now pulling it down.
Final thought
'Everyone says spreadsheets are boring, but spreadsheets are what the world runs on.'
— Nate Jones
Today, we're wrapping up our transport emissions series, for now. There's still plenty to cover, especially EV uptake, heavy freight and planes, but we'll leave them for the near future. Next issue, we'll have a national emissions update for you. Quantish reads and data updates will be back then too.
That's your climate data briefing. Thanks for reading, and wishing you a great week ahead.
💛 Juliette and the OnlyFacts team
Ps. On Friday, I was honoured to attend James Valentine AM's memorial at Sydney Town Hall. James interviewed me weekly about COVID-19 data through much of 2021 and 2022. He had a rare gift for making serious topics feel lighter, clearer, and more human. I was grateful for the way he propped me up in interviews, never throwing me a curly question and always helping me explain the numbers. The celebration of his life was beautiful, moving, and at times hilarious — a fitting tribute to him, and a special day for Sydney. Here's the link to listen. Our loving thoughts are with his family. 💞
Custom tools and content that make evidence easier to understand and harder to ignore.
Data Notes
- Sales-weighted average: The average emissions intensity across all new vehicles sold, adjusted for how many of each vehicle was bought. A popular high-emissions model pulls the average up more than a rarely bought one. A popular low-emissions model pulls it down. By contrast, a simple average treats each model or variant equally.
- Ute sales are reported as 4x4 or 4x2 (except they were reported together pre-2008). In the emissions data for individual variants, we used the 'driving wheels' field as a proxy. This means models described as 4WD are included in the 4x4 category.
Data sources
- Emissions intensity: Green Vehicle Guide
- Sales: Best Selling Cars Blog, CarExpert, Carsales, CarsGuide, Chasing Cars, Drive, Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, Fleet Auto News, Four Wheel Drive Australia, Parramatta Toyota, Royal Automobile Club of Victoria, Sci-Fleet Toyota, Sydney Morning Herald, Toyota Australia Pressroom
