The NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) has said this summer’s bushfire risk is the highest since Black Summer in 2019-20. How is the state tracking? Let’s take a look.
The current status
Since July, about 11,600 hectares (116 km2) have burned in NSW bushfires.
It's still very early in the season and the statutory Bush Fire Danger Period starts this weekend. But the data is useful for ongoing tracking and point-in-time comparisons.
Below: Hectares (ha) destroyed by wildfire since 1974, by fire season
How it compares
Contrast the figure above (11,600 ha) with that from 2019: nearly 500,000 ha had burned at the same point in time.
The chart below tracks the 10 worst years in the RFS dataset.
It shows that at the end of September, the worst fire seasons were already gathering speed. Furthermore, the stepped lines reflect batched data processing rather than real-time blazes, which means more of these fires would have been bigger at an earlier time.
Years show fire season (e.g. 2019-2020). Numbers show hectares burned.
Planned burns are lower
Last financial year, the RFS managed to complete only a quarter of its targeted hazard reductions. Prescribed fires have covered just over 53,000 ha in 2023.
Recently, extreme rain has made the land too wet to burn. However, prescribed burn areas have been falling since 2013. The BOM says the suitable period for this is shrinking due to bushfire seasons starting earlier.
Below: Hectares of prescribed burns, by calendar year
El Niño follows La Niña
Firefighters have warned that three consecutive years of La Niña have driven prolific vegetation growth, leading to higher fuel loads.
The chart below builds on the first by adding the Bureau of Meterology's El Niño alerts. The last few years show a rare triple La Niña followed by the current El Niño weather pattern.
The red lines represent El Niño events. The blue lines represent La Niña. Lighter lines indicate a lower grading, such as Watch or Alert. The alerts are reported monthly and have been aggregated into years based on prevalence. Source: BOM ENSO Outlook and BOM ENSO History