Let's compare two things: today's reality and tomorrow's projections.
As lowly data journalists, the assumptions and models baked into the government's projections about Australia's 2030 emissions are above our pay grade.
But we think we're staying within scope if we ask these simple questions:
What if nothing changes?
The latest quarterly emissions update showed a 3.4% fall on the previous quarter.
That sounds half-way decent, except December quarter emissions are always lower. They jump back up in June. (You can see for yourself here).
So, let's look at the average over the last four quarters: a 0.18% reduction each quarter. What about the average over the last eight quarters? It was -0.1%.
Let's use the more generous 0.18% reduction and see where that takes us if nothing changes.
There are 28 quarters until December 2030.
If we keep reducing emissions at that rate, we'll reach an annual 436.7 Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (Mt CO₂-e) by the end of 2030 — far off our legislated target of 353.3 Mt CO2-e.
Emissions plateau:
What does that trend looks like when the controversial sector of Land Use is removed?
Most of Australia's emissions reductions are thanks to Land Use, which is subject to revisions and competing methodologies.
The live chart below shows emissions by sector. Click on Land Use in the legend to remove it and see how the curve changes.
Emissions by sector (click on Land Use to remove it):
What are the projections?
In its 2030 emissions projections (published November 2023), the Australian government canvassed two possibilities:
The government projects that in 2030 we'll reach:
Neither of these hit the legislated target of 353.3 Mt CO2-e (43% below 2005).
What do we need to believe?
Let's say we buy into the more achievable baseline scenario. Here are the policies that must be successful to get us there.
Commonwealth jurisdiction:
- Rewiring the Nation, to the extent that it supports delivery of state and territory renewable targets and plans
- Community Batteries for Household Solar Program
- Community Solar Banks program
- Powering the Regions Fund (Government purchases of Australian Carbon Credit Units)
- Large-scale Renewable Energy Target
- Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme
- Australian Carbon Credit Unit Scheme
- Federal energy efficiency measures
- Safeguard Mechanism reforms
- Powering the Regions Fund (Safeguard Transformation Stream)
- Some measures under the National Electric Vehicle Strategy including the Fringe Benefits Tax exemption
- Household Energy Upgrades Fund, in the 2023-24 Budget
- Capacity Investment Scheme, as per public announcements to 30 August 2023
- Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin
State and Territory jurisdiction:
- Victoria’s Energy Storage Targets and Offshore Wind Targets
- Victoria’s updated state renewable energy target (65% by 2030, and 95% by 2035)
- Victoria - cessation of native forest harvesting
- New South Wales Electricity Infrastructure Road Map
- Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan and Queensland’s state renewable energy target (50% in 2030, 70% in 2032 and 80% in 2035)
- Tasmania’s state renewable target (150% in 2030)
- The Northern Territory’s renewable target (50% in 2030)
- Western Australia’s closure of Collie and Muja D coal power stations and renewables announcement
- State and territory energy efficiency measures
- State and territory measures to incentivise electric vehicle uptake
- Western Australia – cessation of native forest harvesting from 2024
- State and territory commitments to food organics and garden organics bin rollout
How does that compare with the evidence now?
Are each of these policies on track for success? I'm going to be honest with you. I can't answer that question right now.
I'd hoped to include clear targets and status updates about every one of these policies in this briefing.
Incremental progress should be measured. And we believe you are entitled to the same progress updates as the Prime Minister. But we'll have to chew it in bite-sized pieces together in future briefings.